Dealing with Covid19 Pandemic
Without a doubt, the Covid19 pandemic has been the worst economic apocalypse of our time. Neither the recession of 2001 nor the 2008 financial crisis can be compared to the present global economic and social challenge. The whole world has been virtually shuttered since mid March 2020. All international travel has come to a stop and one after another country big and small; rich and poor has gone into a lockdown with the hope of saving the lives of its people. But this action has come at a cost. It is estimated that this pandemic will cost the global economy about 2 trillion dollars and it would go into a recession shrinking by about 1%.
“Social isolation” is a term which will be forever imprinted in the minds of those of us who are experiencing this catastrophe. But for how long can the world sustain this lockdown and enforce “social isolation”? And is there a universal panacea that is right for all countries rich and poor?
Every country is grappling with the moral dilemma of whether to let the people die from the pandemic or incur economic and human costs from the lockdown. It is damned if you do and damned if you don’t. If one thinks short term then it is easy to focus on saving lives from this disease but what about the long term effects of a prolonged lockdown? Mass unemployment, bankruptcies, possible starvation in poor countries, psychological trauma, social upheaval and anarchy are all realistic possibilities.
This is where I think every country needs to think of the problem in it’s own context. In America 47million people could become unemployed because of this economic meltdown. Donald Trump signed a 2 trillion dollar handout to the American people which was euphemistically called a “stimulus package”. Most experts are doubtful as to whether this package will be able to save the US economy. How many countries can afford to give such handouts to its people?
It is estimated that so far the Bangladesh economy has lost $3billion. The damage keeps increasing with every passing day of the lockdown. It is not just the garments sector that we should think about. Millions of people work in many other fields. The shopping malls, restaurants, domestic transport, local workshops, real estate development, construction activity and all the linkage industries are closed. How many days will the workers be able to remain unemployed? Unfortunately unlike the USA our government does not have the financial resources to give 2month wages as a handout to the millions in the low income group.
There has been a lot of talk that the success of South Korea in managing the virus has been the mass scale testing carried out. 6200 tests per million of its population. It is the highest number of tests per million of the population in the world. It is obviously not possible for a country like Bangladesh to carry out such large scale testing to identify those who are infected. And due to our social and cultural norms, so far we have not been able to successfully quarantine infected people. Perhaps the workable compromise formula would be to continue with the lockdown and at the same time carry out serological testing (immunity testing). Serological testing is apparently not very expensive and it can be used to identify those who are not infected or have already had asymptomatic infection and are now immune. These people can then be let into the workplace thereby gradually getting our economy back into action.
Even if it becomes economically very painful I really do not think it would be wise to abruptly declare that we can now all go back to work. Covid19 is extremely contagious and in a densely populated country like ours the collateral damage could be extremely high. Furthermore, the losses so far incurred by our economy due to the lockdown would have been in vain. Therefore, a proactive solution of a gradual opening up which is safe(r) would be the sensible thing to do.
TareqApril 4, 2020
Wonderful insights sir
MD.Shariful Islam TareqApril 18, 2020
Excellent insides sir
Md Mahmudul KabirApril 4, 2020
Congratulations on starting the blog. Been looking forward to it. I have no doubt that this will be a treasure trove of knowledge for students, professionals, and entrepreneurs. Also, thank you for a timely piece. Wish you all the best.
ZakariaApril 4, 2020
Very informative and analytical writeup.
Undoubtedly we are falling in deep and long uncertainty.
We think, Over the next six months, the government must ensure that strategies suggested by the ADB and other international organizations are implemented without delay to minimize the inevitable economic slowdown that will follow even a successful fight against the novel coronavirus.
We hope for the best for the upcoming situations.
ZahirApril 4, 2020
Dear Sir, Assalamu Alaikum. It’s my immense pleasure that I have got the opportunity to make some comments on your writing. You are undoubtedly an impressive person I have ever seen. After leaving bti, I was missing your guidance & instruction that I was used to getting through your email frequently. Thank you, Sir, for opening up your blog site. From now on, we can learn from you again!!!
May Allah bless you long age with good health.
Md. Zahirul Islam
Md Mehdi hossainApril 4, 2020
I didn’t aware of that anyone is talking about that. Thank so much sir, for this meaningful piece of article. I hope it will be all good soon.
AKM YADAT HOSSAINApril 4, 2020
Thank you sir for the right time insights.
Aysha SiddiquaApril 4, 2020
A very well thought and timely written article. Thank you very much sir for this. I request you to continue writing on this issue which might be very usefull for our corporates, businessmen and for the planners. Expecting more….
AshrafuzzamanApril 4, 2020
Congratulations on your insightful maiden blog sir. While it is difficult to presume the exact scenario, we may certainly have a very different scenario once anti-corona vaccine period starts. However, the picture looks very complex and worrisome as you have rightly depicted in your peice. Looking forward to more such writing.
ZahirApril 4, 2020
Thanks for the very important talks and personal views of the writer on the current pendemic. I personally think lockdown should be continued until the situation gets improved as we are lucky enoug that we have witnessed the negligences of the USA and Europe!
At the same time, The government should give some concessions to the Businesses to Loan and Tax.
Kashfi SarkerApril 6, 2020
Don’t know about in Bangladesh, in the US the antibody test (to test who has already had COVID) is *not* available to anyone yet.
S.H.April 6, 2020
Really great points. I think countries need to figure out how to deal with the situation on a case by case basis. What works in Canada & the US isn’t necessarily the correct formula for a country like Bangladesh. I think it’ll also be interesting to see the strain of COVID-19 in a country like Bangladesh – is it a milder one with flu-like symptoms or the fatal strain that we’re seeing in cooler climates.